Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods or our paper for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-07-26

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-07-11) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-07-11 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-07-11 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-07-11 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-07-11 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-07-11 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-07-11)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-07-11) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 150 (125 – 173) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -23 (180 – -11)
Albania 88 (69 – 103) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 380 (17 – -18)
Algeria 598 (540 – 660) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 21 (14 – 43)
Andorra 5 (0 – 11) Unsure 1.4 (0 – 2.9) 3.4 (1.1 – -2.8)
Angola 35 (21 – 44) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 19 (6.5 – -21)
Argentina 4139 (3695 – 4547) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 30 (20 – 62)
Armenia 420 (375 – 462) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -77 (72 – -25)
Australia 305 (261 – 341) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (9.5 – 29)
Austria 111 (92 – 132) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 21 (9.8 – -110)
Azerbaijan 499 (450 – 545) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -390 (46 – -37)
Bahrain 517 (461 – 563) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 160 (32 – -54)
Bangladesh 3063 (2849 – 3262) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 140 (54 – -220)
Belarus 168 (145 – 194) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -63 (37 – -17)
Belgium 193 (161 – 222) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 10 (7.1 – 19)
Benin 43 (30 – 54) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.7) 7.7 (4.4 – 33)
Bolivia 1705 (1544 – 1846) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 21 (16 – 30)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 223 (194 – 248) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 340 (25 – -29)
Botswana 30 (20 – 39) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.8) 6.8 (3.7 – 39)
Brazil 33385 (31782 – 35060) Decreasing 1 (1 – 1) -80 (-160 – -53)
Bulgaria 207 (179 – 233) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -94 (36 – -21)
Cameroon 144 (117 – 166) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -30 (20 – -8.4)
Canada 449 (392 – 506) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (11 – 28)
Cape Verde 52 (37 – 65) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 21 (7.8 – -31)
Central African Republic 35 (23 – 44) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -36 (13 – -7.7)
Chad 5 (0 – 10) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.4 – 3.2) 4.4 (1.5 – -4.4)
Chile 2397 (2219 – 2591) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -79 (380 – -36)
China 78 (59 – 95) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.6) 8.9 (5.4 – 25)
Colombia 7244 (6612 – 7912) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 15 (13 – 18)
Congo 99 (80 – 116) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 34 (11 – -35)
Costa Rica 517 (457 – 567) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 22 (14 – 47)
Cote dIvoire 217 (189 – 247) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -30 (220 – -14)
Croatia 92 (68 – 112) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 73 (13 – -20)
Cuba 9 (2 – 14) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.7 – 2) 7 (2.6 – -10)
Czechia 123 (99 – 145) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 23 (10 – -92)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 56 (40 – 69) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -18 (41 – -7.4)
Denmark 37 (26 – 47) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 11 (5.2 – -78)
Djibouti 22 (13 – 29) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.7) 8.7 (4 – -31)
Dominican Republic 1279 (1158 – 1394) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 27 (19 – 48)
Ecuador 895 (826 – 973) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 71 (30 – -200)
Egypt 847 (783 – 916) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -92 (120 – -33)
El Salvador 331 (291 – 368) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 29 (15 – 340)
Equatorial Guinea 159 (114 – 201) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.8) 7.5 (4.5 – 22)
Estonia 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.7 (0.4 – 3) 4.5 (1.4 – -3.9)
Eswatini 66 (48 – 83) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 30 (9.2 – -25)
Ethiopia 356 (296 – 410) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 11 (7.9 – 19)
Finland 11 (3 – 17) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.6) 26 (4.4 – -6.6)
France 705 (628 – 782) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 21 (13 – 50)
Gabon 61 (46 – 73) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 18 (7.6 – -45)
Germany 443 (398 – 496) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 22 (13 – 66)
Ghana 528 (459 – 602) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) -300 (23 – -20)
Greece 30 (17 – 40) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -23 (17 – -7)
Guatemala 1335 (1203 – 1494) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (11 – 20)
Guinea 67 (50 – 82) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -69 (18 – -12)
Guinea Bissau 26 (17 – 36) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.8) 6.7 (3.6 – 50)
Haiti 49 (32 – 65) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -38 (17 – -8.9)
Honduras 883 (764 – 980) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (10 – 24)
Hungary 9 (3 – 14) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.8) 14 (3.6 – -7.4)
Iceland 7 (0 – 11) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.7 – 2.3) 6.6 (2.2 – -7.1)
India 36830 (33911 – 40056) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 18 (16 – 20)
Indonesia 1672 (1528 – 1814) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 310 (51 – -78)
Iran 2466 (2294 – 2638) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 80 (39 – -1900)
Iraq 2276 (2104 – 2447) Unsure 1 (1 – 1) -500 (87 – -65)
Ireland 13 (7 – 19) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.6) 15 (4.3 – -11)
Israel 1647 (1540 – 1763) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 26 (18 – 46)
Italy 215 (179 – 243) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 59 (18 – -43)
Japan 461 (412 – 501) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 17 (11 – 38)
Kazakhstan 1769 (1638 – 1896) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 63 (34 – 440)
Kenya 497 (434 – 552) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (11 – 26)
Kosovo 127 (109 – 148) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -12 (-28 – -7.8)
Kuwait 641 (576 – 690) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -150 (68 – -35)
Kyrgyzstan 2432 (2126 – 2755) Increasing 1.6 (1.4 – 1.8) 5.3 (4.4 – 6.5)
Latvia 6 (0 – 14) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.4 – 3.1) 3.6 (1.4 – -6.5)
Lebanon 77 (58 – 92) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 97 (13 – -18)
Libya 68 (51 – 80) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 52 (11 – -20)
Lithuania 6 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.4 (0.5 – 2.2) 7.3 (2.2 – -6.1)
Luxembourg 93 (75 – 110) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 15 (7.8 – 260)
Madagascar 295 (258 – 323) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 210 (26 – -33)
Malawi 91 (69 – 107) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -670 (17 – -16)
Malaysia 8 (2 – 12) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.4) -40 (5.3 – -4.2)
Maldives 38 (26 – 49) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) 180 (10 – -12)
Mali 31 (21 – 42) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 39 (7.9 – -13)
Mauritania 95 (71 – 114) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 13 (7 – 110)
Mexico 6541 (6098 – 7036) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 64 (39 – 190)
Moldova 236 (201 – 264) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 68 (20 – -43)
Mongolia 7 (0 – 16) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.6 – 2.8) 6.3 (1.9 – -4.7)
Montenegro 69 (52 – 81) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -62 (20 – -12)
Morocco 246 (207 – 280) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 67 (19 – -43)
Mozambique 45 (32 – 60) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 19 (6.9 – -26)
Namibia 75 (59 – 90) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 17 (8 – -120)
Nepal 134 (112 – 157) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -69 (24 – -14)
Netherlands 122 (96 – 144) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 9.2 (6.1 – 19)
New Zealand 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.4 (0.3 – 2.5) 10 (2 – -3.1)
Niger 5 (1 – 9) Unsure 1.1 (0.4 – 1.7) 91 (3.3 – -3.6)
Nigeria 618 (552 – 678) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 40 (21 – 470)
North Macedonia 149 (125 – 170) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -160 (25 – -19)
Norway 19 (10 – 27) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 35 (5.9 – -9.1)
Oman 1570 (1458 – 1692) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 52 (29 – 200)
Pakistan 1909 (1798 – 2011) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -20 (-27 – -15)
Palestine 465 (410 – 516) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 24 (14 – 65)
Panama 1136 (1054 – 1220) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 67 (32 – -640)
Paraguay 112 (86 – 135) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 21 (9.5 – -87)
Peru 4114 (3794 – 4433) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.1) 29 (22 – 43)
Philippines 1788 (1607 – 1971) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 49 (20 – -120)
Poland 335 (294 – 372) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 29 (15 – 270)
Portugal 301 (269 – 333) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -35 (300 – -17)
Puerto Rico 369 (314 – 425) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 12 (8.6 – 22)
Qatar 451 (402 – 490) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -53 (130 – -22)
Romania 753 (670 – 830) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 17 (12 – 27)
Russia 6604 (6247 – 6936) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1) 130 (66 – 7500)
Rwanda 39 (27 – 50) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 48 (8.9 – -15)
Saudi Arabia 2761 (2579 – 2949) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -77 (840 – -37)
Senegal 110 (90 – 127) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 93 (15 – -23)
Serbia 386 (340 – 432) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 28 (15 – 180)
Seychelles 3 (0 – 6) Unsure 0.8 (0.1 – 1.6) -5.3 (3.2 – -1.5)
Sierra Leone 20 (10 – 29) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 27 (5.7 – -10)
Singapore 262 (230 – 293) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 19 (11 – 59)
Slovakia 18 (10 – 26) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.7) 14 (4.5 – -13)
Somalia 16 (9 – 23) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.4) 130 (6.2 – -6.7)
South Africa 12927 (11973 – 13709) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 40 (32 – 53)
South Korea 46 (33 – 57) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -920 (12 – -12)
South Sudan 15 (7 – 22) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.3) -33 (8.6 – -5.6)
Spain 1332 (1177 – 1512) Increasing 1.4 (1.3 – 1.5) 7.8 (6.7 – 9.4)
Sri Lanka 10 (3 – 17) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.5) -48 (5.5 – -4.4)
Sudan 98 (73 – 118) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 16 (7.3 – -100)
Suriname 44 (32 – 55) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 14 (6.1 – -57)
Sweden 358 (317 – 397) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -36 (100 – -15)
Switzerland 102 (84 – 125) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 40 (13 – -33)
Tajikistan 48 (35 – 61) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 10000 (13 – -13)
Thailand 7 (2 – 12) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.6 – 2.2) 6.7 (2.4 – -8.1)
Tunisia 6 (1 – 10) Unsure 1.4 (0.5 – 2.2) 6.4 (2.1 – -5.9)
Turkey 993 (914 – 1079) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 460 (49 – -61)
Uganda 14 (7 – 21) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 69 (5.8 – -7.2)
Ukraine 756 (682 – 831) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 44 (22 – -2100)
United Arab Emirates 306 (272 – 343) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -17 (-36 – -11)
United Kingdom 753 (689 – 821) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 29 (18 – 79)
United Republic of Tanzania 10 (4 – 15) Decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -8.6 (32 – -3.7)
United States of America 68950 (65007 – 73465) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.1) 37 (32 – 44)
Uzbekistan 576 (515 – 628) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 23 (15 – 50)
Venezuela 384 (337 – 426) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 34 (17 – -690)
Western Sahara 45 (30 – 62) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.9) 3.2 (1.8 – 15)
Yemen 24 (13 – 33) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -130 (9 – -7.9)
Zambia 185 (160 – 210) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.7) 6.1 (4.5 – 9.6)
Zimbabwe 99 (80 – 116) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.6) 8.7 (5.5 – 21)